The AFC playoff race is a tale of familiar faces, but with a twist. While the bracket may be upside down, certain teams have a compelling reason to believe in their chances.
The NFL's tricky schedule-making game
Let's start with a bold statement: the NFL is a master manipulator when it comes to scheduling. They frontload the schedules of potential contenders, satisfying the broadcasters' hunger for star-studded matchups early on. This strategy creates an illusion of parity towards the end of the season, but in reality, it's a carefully crafted playing field, leveled by design.
Take the Chiefs and Texans, for example. Both teams, currently sitting at 6-5, have faced some of the toughest schedules in the AFC, along with the Jaguars. Meanwhile, the Colts, who recently lost to the Chiefs, are facing a challenging stretch of games against strong opponents like the Texans, Jaguars, Seahawks, and 49ers.
The Chiefs' grueling journey
The Chiefs, in particular, have had a grueling schedule. Their remaining games include tough matchups against the Cowboys, Titans, and Raiders, as well as a depleted Chargers team that will be a different beast compared to the one they faced earlier in the season.
But here's where it gets controversial: should we view the Chiefs' current position as a turnaround or a testament to their resilience? The NFL's scheduling tactics often lead to an unfair portrayal of teams, especially when injuries take their toll.
The case of the 'underperforming' teams
Let's take a closer look at the opening slate of opponents for three AFC teams that some might consider underperforming. The Ravens, Chiefs, and Texans all faced a tough lineup of teams, including the Bills, Rams, and Buccaneers. By this argument, the only real disappointment might be the Bills, who had a relatively easier path but still showed inconsistency.
The Chiefs' victory over the Colts
On Sunday, the Chiefs faced off against the Colts, who deployed a unique anti-Patrick Mahomes defense. The Colts' defensive coordinator, Lou Anarumo, threw a variety of looks at Mahomes, including five-man fronts and creative spy tactics. Despite this, the Chiefs found a way to win, relying on their veteran running back, Kareem Hunt, and manufacturing a victory that might have gone unnoticed due to its lack of flashy moments.
The class of the conference
Sunday's game highlighted the clear divide between the top teams in the AFC and those who, while improved, are benefiting from a fortunate run against weaker opponents. The Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens, despite their early-season struggles, are likely to be heavily favored in the playoffs, showing that the NFL's simulation often leads us back to these recognizable brands.
The power of recognition
While some aspects of NFL analytics culture can be off-putting, the numbers don't lie. The Chiefs, despite their record, have consistently been one of the best offenses in the league, and their defense has shown the ability to contain even the best offensive threats. So, are the Chiefs back? Perhaps they never really left, as their presence has always been felt in the league's elite echelon.
