Water Wars? 2026 Amu Darya and Syr Darya Allocations Explained (2026)

Central Asian Countries Reach Landmark Water Allocation Agreement for 2026

In a significant development for water management in Central Asia, the region's nations have agreed on a detailed plan for water allocations from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers for the year 2026. This agreement, reached during the 91st meeting of the Interstate Coordination Water Management Commission (ICWC) in Ashgabat on November 13, 2025, marks a crucial step towards ensuring equitable water distribution and sustainable resource management.

The agreement addresses the non-growing season, a period of low agricultural demand, and outlines specific allocations for each country. For the Amu Darya, the total allocation from October 2025 to October 2026 is approximately 55.4 billion cubic meters. Tajikistan will receive 9.8 billion cubic meters, while Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan will each get 22 billion cubic meters. A critical aspect is ensuring that 44 billion cubic meters of the Amu Darya's flow reaches the Kerki hydrological station in Turkmenistan to support downstream areas.

Additionally, 4.2 billion cubic meters are allocated for the Aral Sea and the Amu Darya delta, with half delivered in winter and early spring. Another 800 million cubic meters will be used for irrigation in Dashoguz, Khorezm, and Karakalpakstan, benefiting both communities in water-scarce regions and the fragile river ecosystems.

Turning to the Syr Darya, the total allocation for the non-growing season is 4.219 billion cubic meters. Uzbekistan will receive the majority, at 3.347 billion cubic meters, while Kazakhstan will get 460 million cubic meters through the 'Dustlik' canal. Tajikistan will receive 365 million cubic meters, and Kyrgyzstan will get 47 million cubic meters. These figures are based on projected river inflows, reservoir capacities, and ecological flow requirements.

The ICWC also approved operational plans for key reservoirs. In Tajikistan, the Nurek Reservoir will start the non-growing season with 10.5 billion cubic meters and decline to around 9.7 billion by spring. The Tuyamuyun reservoir, on the Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan border, will start with 4.5 billion cubic meters and reduce to 3.4 billion. Both reservoirs will gradually release water to support irrigation and sustain the Amu Darya's flow.

In the Syr Darya basin, the total water volume in the Toktogul, Andijan, and Charvak reservoirs at the start of the season is approximately 10.6 billion cubic meters, slightly below average. Tajikistan's Bahri Tojik reservoir will hold 2.6 billion cubic meters, and Kazakhstan's Chardara reservoir will contain about 1.65 billion cubic meters. Collectively, the Syr Darya basin will have around 14.9 billion cubic meters of water at the start of winter, roughly 90% of the long-term seasonal average.

The 92nd ICWC meeting is scheduled for Dushanbe, where officials will assess reservoir performance and water usage during the 2025-2026 season. The agenda will also focus on strategies to enhance regional water security in the face of growing climate challenges. This agreement is a significant step towards sustainable water management in Central Asia, but the region's water challenges remain complex and require ongoing collaboration and adaptation.

Water Wars? 2026 Amu Darya and Syr Darya Allocations Explained (2026)

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