Olive oil prices are plummeting across the EU, leaving producers bewildered after a period of unprecedented price hikes! For years, consumers have been paying more and more for their favorite liquid gold, but suddenly, the tide has turned. But here's where it gets controversial: why is this happening now, and what does it mean for the future of olive oil?
Let's dive into the recent history of olive oil costs. Between 2022 and 2024, we saw a staggering 78% surge in what you paid at the grocery store. This wasn't a gradual creep; it was a sharp climb. Then, in 2025, the tables dramatically flipped. Eurostat data reveals a 23% drop in olive oil prices across the European Union, marking the first decrease after four consecutive years of increases. This decline was even more pronounced in some of the major olive oil-producing nations.
So, what's behind this sudden price drop after such a prolonged period of soaring costs? And which countries are experiencing the most significant price falls?
A Rollercoaster of Price Increases
To understand the current situation, we need to look back. In 2021, prices nudged up by 4.1%. The following year, 2022, saw a more substantial jump of 14.5%. But the real shockwaves hit in 2023 with a 34.4% increase, followed by another 32.2% rise in 2024. When we examine month-to-month changes, olive oil price inflation consistently surpassed 50% in many months from early 2021 onwards. In March 2024, this inflation rate peaked at an astonishing 52.4%, and it remained above the 50% mark for several months in late 2023.
Mariana Matos, the general secretary of Casa do Azeite, the Portuguese Olive Oil Association, explained the previous situation to Euronews Business: "Due to the lack of production in the two previous seasons (from 2022 to 2024), caused by the extreme drought that affected the entire Mediterranean region, but particularly Spain, combined with low stocks, the only way to regulate the market was through price increases."
The Impact of a Poor Harvest
Figures from the International Olive Council (IOC) paint a clear picture of a significant downturn in EU olive oil production over recent seasons. The 2022/23 season saw a 39% plunge in production, falling from 2.27 million tonnes in 2021/22 to just 1.39 million tonnes. While output saw a recovery to 1.55 million tonnes in 2023/24, this was still considerably lower than the historical average. Looking ahead, provisional data suggests production will rebound to approximately 2,110 thousand tonnes in the 2024/25 season, with a slight dip expected in 2025/26. The IOC specifically highlighted the 2022 summer heatwave as a major culprit, severely impacting key olive-growing areas across the Mediterranean.
As an IOC spokesperson wisely noted, "In any market, variations in supply generate corresponding downward or upward pressures on prices." And this is the part most people miss: Spain, the EU's dominant olive oil producer, accounts for over 65% of the bloc's production in the last season. It's no surprise then that Spain led the pack in price declines in 2025, with a remarkable 38.9% drop in consumer prices. Greece followed closely with a 29.2% decrease, and Portugal saw a 24% fall. These three nations were the only ones to experience price drops exceeding the EU average.
Among the EU's 'Big Four' producers, France experienced the mildest decline, while Italy and Germany saw more substantial price drops. On the flip side, Albania and Romania recorded the largest price increases.
It's worth noting that Turkey's data isn't included in Eurostat. However, Turkish statistics indicate that prices for various edible oils, including olive and sunflower oil, rose by 31% between December 2024 and December 2025.
The Perfect Storm: Harvests and Energy Costs
Rafael Pico Acevedo, director of the Spanish Olive Oil Exporters Association (ASOLIVA), elaborated on the confluence of factors: "Over the previous two years, the combination of consecutive poor harvests, supply shortages, and energy costs pushed consumer prices to historically high levels." He added, "The significant improvement in production in the 2024/25 season, particularly in southern Europe, has helped normalize supply and ease these pressures, resulting in pronounced price declines."
Acevedo further emphasized that the differences in price changes between countries largely stem from their position in the supply chain. In major producing nations like Spain, Greece, and Portugal, an increase in product availability is more rapidly reflected in the prices at the source and subsequently at the consumer level. "In these markets, the impact of a good harvest is more direct and visible, which explains the sharper declines," he explained.
Adding another layer to the story, Mariana Matos pointed out that alongside the return of higher supply, lower demand is also contributing to the price reduction. The steep price increases of the past had a significant dampening effect on olive oil consumption.
But here's where it gets controversial: With prices falling, are we seeing a return to pre-drought levels, or is this a temporary blip? Some might argue that the current prices don't fully reflect the true cost of sustainable olive oil production, especially considering the long-term impacts of climate change. What do you think? Are these price drops a welcome relief, or a sign of underlying market instability? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!
